Well orchestrated buying and selling is the key to controlling stock prices and to profiting from them. That is to say, if you can put enough money to work, YOU can determine the price movement of a stock. YOU can move the prices of stocks in the direction that YOU desire. Large financial institutions and money managers do this all the time. Sometimes the small investor benefits from these "orchestrated moves" in stock prices, and other times, he gets trampled. Because no individual or institution has the capital that would be needed to control entire markets, it is better to focus on manipulating the price of only a few carefully selected stocks. And don't think that a deliberate attempt to "manipulate" stock prices is a bad thing. In fact, in THIS market, manipulating the price of stocks is THE ONLY THING that matters. Fundamentals, and expectations about future fundamentals will all soon be swept aside as determinants of stock prices, at least until market conditions normalize.

Stock prices are a function of both deliberate attempts at stock price manipulation, and, in more "normalized markets," they are also a function of companies' real underlying  performance, and the expectations of future performance. But what happens when overall markets deteriorate is that there is a disconnect between real profits in the here and now,  expectations of future profits (which are based on the anticipation of a growth environment), and stock prices. Once market conditions have deteriorated to a certain point, expectations of earnings are no longer a reliable way to price stocks. In such environments, virtually all stocks tend to get pummeled, as people lose confidence in paper assets more generally. This across the board devaluation of stocks tends to occur in recessions, and it is based on a realistic assessment by investors of what is, or soon will be, a deterioration in the overall economic environment. This devaluation is also based on the emotional assessment of how bad things are going to get in a particular economic downturn. Sometimes the assessment is right and, more often, it is wrong. That is to say, in most cases involving normal corrections and fluctuations of the business cycle, investors have hammered stock prices beyond what the deterioration in their fundamentals would justify. In normal downturns in the business cycle, expectations fueled by emotions will typically send the prices of stocks to an unreasonably low level. This has historically been the case in recessions, and we have always bounced back. But, there are scenarios in which we will not bounce back, at least not immediately. There are scenarios that will defy the "business cycle model," and which will portend a more serious, secular downturn in the economy. In these cases, extremely heavy discounting of stock prices will prove to be fully justified. If we can anticipate such a secular downturn with some degree of accuracy (not precision) we can avoid getting severely injured on the way down, and we can get ourselves into a controlling position close to the bottom of a stock's price. What we are talking about here is near depression like scenarios, or virtual doomsday scenarios (at least as far as the stock market is concerned), even though the official numbers may only indicate that we are in a recession. These virtual doomsday scenarios should be a major part of every investor's financial planning strategy.

The kind of adjustment which stock prices can undergo in a virtual doomsday scenario is admittedly based upon an exceptionally bleak economic forecast. Usually, because of self-correcting and self-equilibrilating mechanisms in our financial system which support continued economic growth, such scenarios do not occur. Hence, usually, forecasts which are based on such scenarios have been wrong. However, if the financial system is placed under enough pressure, or if it is broken badly enough, such virtual doomsday scenarios can occur, and they should be factored into one's overall investment strategy. At the very least, considering such scenarios can help you to plan for the worst, even if the worst fails to materialize. Considering such scenarios represents an exercise in risk management which will afford some degree of protection for your assets during a potentially severe and chronic economic downturn, such as the one which is forecast to be in the formative stages now.

Over the last decade especially, the government subsidized the housing industry, and artificially inflated the demand for housing by making easy credit available for first time buyers. By making the easy money available to fuel the housing boom, the government partly compensated for the loss of higher paying manufacturing jobs which has been going on for decades, and which accelerated in the last two decades.  In the process, it temporarily provided both jobs and more affordable housing to millions of people who would have otherwise not had either. These would seem to have been good things. However, good things usually don't come without a cost.

Make no mistake, the underlying demand for housing was real. It was real in the limited sense that people will always want more than they can realistically afford, by virtue of the positions that they occupy in the labor force. And, in this case, the government stepped in to allow large numbers of people to buy something that they really couldn't afford, as a way of stimulating the economy, and as a way of providing jobs.  By federally guaranteeing loans, the government made housing more affordable for both deserving people at the lower income scale, and for undeserving people who were poor credit risks, and who should have never been able to buy their own homes. In a free market economy, making housing more affordable to people who are not credit worthy is not a proper function of government. It is not the function of government to allow people to buy things that they really cannot afford to buy.  But, as almost everyone knows, we have a mixed economy, or one which has characteristics of both free market capitalism, and socialism. Without saying whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, someone has to pay for it, regardless. Under socialism, the costs incurred by one class (the class which benefits the most from socialist tendencies) are born by the society as a whole. In this case, the cost of making housing more affordable for both deserving lower income groups and for undeserving poor credit risks will have to be born by the society as a whole for many years to come. There is no free lunch, even under socialism.

In an economy dominated by low paying service jobs rather than higher paying manufacturing jobs, there will always be far more people who want to own their own homes than can realistically afford to pay for them. In a totally free market, or in a market in which financing for housing is not heavily subsidized or guaranteed by the government, many of the housing units that were constructed during the housing boom would have gone unconstructed, and the housing bubble would have never happened. By means of the easy money which it made available through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mack, among other mechanisms, the government artificially stimulated the demand for housing and helped to create the oversupply that would eventually cause the housing bubble to burst.

Admittedly, the process of creating the oversupply in housing provided jobs. Effectively, it was a make work program financed by the government, which tended to mask the true underlying condition of the economy. Not only was this a make work program (because it artificially stimulated the housing industry), but it was also a social welfare program (because it allowed people to buy homes who would have otherwise never been able to afford them). It may have been well intentioned program, but, like all social welfare programs, someone eventually has to pay for them. Now we have to pay for it. Now, we have to pay for all those years of "hidden" social welfare spending in the form of federally guaranteed home loans.

Partly as a result of such well intentioned government programs, more and more Americans have fallen under the illusion that, simply because they are Americans, or simply because they live in America, that they are entitled to an easy life. This myth is now being exposed for what it is. Now, life is going to get tougher for us all. At the same time, it is going to get more interesting. For even as this is a time of great tragedy for our nation, the cost of which we will have to bear for many years to come, it is also a wake up call. And despite dark and perilous times for financial markets, it is also a time of great opportunity, both politically and economically. Politically, it can provide the impetus for meaningful, lasting and even revolutionary political changes. And while the political ramifications of our situation are far reaching, it is not the primary aim of this newsletter to explore them fully. Rather, our main concern here is with showing our subscribers how they can profit from the economic and political maelstrom that is still to come. We will show them how to profit from doom.

Yet, even in an environment of dramatically reduced economic activity, it is still possible to make money by being long in carefully selected stocks, provided that you can get into these stocks at or near the bottom of their trading range, and provided that you get out at or near the top of their trading range. Even in an environment of dramatically reduced economic activity, you can still make money from trading range bound stocks, if you have a good idea of where their trading ranges are going to be. That is, you can get in near the bottom of a stock's trading range and you can get out near the top, for as long as this environment lasts.

Taking out long positions in stocks, or being long the market, has traditionally been a signal of investor confidence in our economy, our financial system, and in our country overall. This is why both small investors and the brokerage firms that take advantage of them have emphasized being long the market. And, historically, such optimism has proven to be a good bet. Betting against the market, or being short the market, has proven to be a bad bet, at least over the longer term. However, conditions can arise in which optimism is not a good bet. Conditions can arise in which taking the long side is only justified at certain extremely low price points.

The long side is only justified when you can buy at the bottom and leave someone else holding the bag at or near the top. That is to say, unless your goal is long term ownership of a company's stock, just so that you can exercise your voting rights as a shareholder, or just so you can have some control over the officers it elects, you will want to enter an exit your position in a company's stock at strategic points. In the economic environment that we are now entering, it will be even more important than usual to adopt this strategy as a way of increasing and safeguarding your wealth. Again, PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS is based upon the forecast that there is something new and different about this particular economic downturn, and that it does not represent a routine recession. However, this kind of strategy for dealing with stock prices will stand a better chance of making you money, even if we are only entering a recession. For, it anticipates the kind of stock price movement that occurs in "routine" recessions, and that which is likely to occur in a more secular and prolonged economic downturns which can have an impact on financial markets that potentially lasts for decades. As investors, we need to consider these scenarios, if only as a hedge against future uncertainties. Such scenarios can happen, and, eventually, they will. It is only a question of when they will happen and how severe they will be. PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS is designed to help our subscribers benefit from such scenarios and all the political and social turmoil that is almost certain to accompany them.

By means of this strategy, our subscribers will be able to continuously increase the number of shares they own in the stocks of selected companies, for as long as the stocks of these companies trade in their projected range. This is what occupying a controlling position in a stock is all about. And, if we cannot get ourselves into a controlling position in a company's stock, or if we cannot purchase shares of its stock within a pre-determined bottom range, then, given the deteriorating environment that we believe we are entering, we will not buy the stock. In these cases, we will simply instruct our subscribers to either keep their cash or keep their gold.

In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will focus on stocks that we anticipate will be range bound in an environment of deteriorating fundamentals and in a slow to no growth environment. And, in the slow to no growth environment that we predict we will soon be entering, this will likely include an ever increasing number of all stocks.

In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will identify the ranges in which we are willing to buy certain stocks, but are not willing to sell them. And most importantly, we will not even buy the stocks that are highlighted in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, unless their price enters a predetermined bottom range at which we would be comfortable owing the stocks for a longer period of time. Where this stock market is concerned (and admittedly, its condition could improve, even as it is more likely to get worse) we only want the best assets at an unfairly discounted price.

Obviously, not all of our subscribers will be able to buy the stocks which are featured in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS at the exact bottom of their projected ranges, and they will have to be content with buying these stocks at some point within these ranges. Buying carefully selected stocks at some point within their pre designated ranges will allow our subscribers to collectively gain a position in a company's stock that is large enough to trigger price reversals. That is, our aim will be to collectively acquire a position in a company's stock that is large enough to trigger a reduction in the stock's price when it is sold, and large enough to trigger an increase in a stock's price when it is bought. Through well orchestrated buying and selling of selected stocks, we can establish, reinforce, and give validity to both support and resistance levels for these stocks. Admittedly, in some cases, we may be overwhelmed by other forces. But, by strictly adhering to buying and selling discipline, we will certainly stand a better chance of profiting from this strategy than the average investor. Again, it is a primary aim of PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS to manipulate the prices of selected stocks in a direction from which our subscribers will benefit financially, and in order to place them in a controlling position. As individuals, we would likely not be able to pull off this strategy. But, as a group of investors acting in concert with one another, we can pull it off. And, our chances of pulling it off will be directly proportional to both the number of subscribers we have, and to how closely they adhere to the investment discipline that will be recommended in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS.

In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will target the stocks of companies that we ultimately want to own a long position in, even in an extremely bad market. For even under very unfavorable market conditions, certain stocks will become enticing, if their price is low enough. We will also target stocks that we want to hammer and send into the gutter, precisely for the purpose of being able to buy these stocks at a significantly reduced price. Admittedly, and to some extent, non subscribers will be able to incidentally benefit from our attempts to "manipulate" stock prices. But, if we have the edge of timing (knowing when to enter and exit) and collective action on our side, we will be the first in line. We will be the first ones to take advantage of the opportunities (change in price) which we have helped to create. And, most importantly, we will make every attempt to control risk in order to safeguard our subscriber's hard earned cash.

It is passé' investment advice to recommend "diversification." Obviously, you want to spread out your risk. But, you want to spread it out most among stocks that are heavily discounted and that are most likely to make you a profit. That is, you want to spread out your stock purchases among those companies that have the greatest potential for rebound, if and when economic conditions normalize. They are not normalized now. Nor does it look like they will be normalized in the foreseeable future. If anything, the investment environment is likely to get worse from here. But even in this environment, even in a doomsday scenario, there will be profits to be made.

Unlike many stock brokers who must retain an inherently optimistic outlook on the future in order to get their clients to buy stocks at or near current prices, we are not so optimistic. We know that in the current environment, and in the environment that we believe we are headed into, even the stocks of companies that appear to have good prospects can tank, virtually without warning, due to deteriorating fundamentals, due to the perception of these fundamentals, and due to changes in overall market conditions which affect the prices that people are willing to pay for stocks more generally. All of these factors can converge to heavily discount earning forecasts as well as the prices that people are willing to pay for stocks. We expect such changes in forecasts, and we expect a broader decline in the price multiples that people are willing to pay for stocks. And this time, unlike normal downturns in the business cycle, we expect these drastically reduced outlooks and forecasts to be fully justified. That is to say, we really expect economic conditions to get bad. Bad means considerably worse than their current levels.

In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, we will assign price ranges to featured stocks that are based on a number of credible virtual doomsday scenarios that every prudent and cautious investor should consider in order to protect their wealth. And, most importantly, we will impose strict buying and selling discipline. We will not buy a stock unless it is heavily discounted. In fact, we will not even buy targeted stocks unless they are so heavily discounted that their price actually reflects how bad things are, and how bad we expect them to get in the future. We will not buy even these carefully selected stocks, unless they are priced for the virtual economic doomsday that is now beginning to take shape.

A key part of our strategy will be to project top and bottom trading ranges for selected stocks in an environment of highly depressed economic activity. The task of assigning these ranges will be somewhat imprecise. But, if you consider all the variables that should be considered in predicting the movement of stock prices, you will quickly realize that predictive models cannot be precise without lying to you.  Aiming for precision is not something that you want to be distracted by.  Rather, considering all the variables that are involved, this is something that you want to get roughly right. This is forecasting and analysis done with a chain saw, not a scalpel. And, when a lot of once mighty oaks have fallen across the path that lies between you and profits, you will need a chain saw.

This will be a time of growing social and political unrest for most Americans, and for us as well. But although such environments represent times of anxiety and fear, they also represent opportunities to make fundamental changes to our political system. For ultimately, it is our political system that is responsible for making the laws that define the rules of the game. And, we will suggest that, as the game is currently being played, it is grossly unfair to the small investor. And while our ultimate aim should be to wrest political control from the powers that be, Democrats and Republicans alike, our main concern in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS is with showing our subscribers how to make profits in this environment. In order to make these profits, we will need a new way of looking at things. We will need a new paradigm to determine what we are willing to pay for a stock and at what price we would be willing to sell that stock

Based upon this new paradigm for understanding our economic environment, it is a relatively safe bet that we are now entering a new kind of stock market. This market promises to be both relatively range and growth bound for many years to come, and one which still potentially has a considerable further downside from here. This is an opportunity for people to get out of everything but their marking blocks. (A marking block is a very small position in a stock that serves mainly as a reminder. It is a small enough position so that you don't lose sleep over it, and it is large enough so that you don't forget about it completely. The point at which you take out the marking block represents the first point at which you would be willing to sell in a recovery). Cash is king, at least until it isn't. We don't know exactly what the pivot point will be. We don't know exactly when the market as a whole will bottom. All we can do is make educated guesses. But, the more educated our guesses, the more likely we are to be right, and the more likely we are to be in the driver's seat going forward. Even using this strategy, we will not be able to get everything right. We will have hits and we will have misses. If our hits are bigger than our misses, we will come out ahead. Our predictions and forecasts must have a relatively large margin for error simply because there are so many variables involved. Any predictive models which do not factor in a relatively large margin for error are simply lying to you.

For instance, what is our current economic situation and direction? No one seems to know for sure, and most of the analysts and talking heads have been proven wrong so far. Are we headed for a light touch and go recession, or are we headed for something more serious, pervasive and chronic? The title of this newsletter clearly suggests the belief that we are headed for some rough and uncertain times. It suggests that we are headed into a new kind of environment, or one which is marked by a potentially prolonged period of dramatically reduced economic activity. So how can we profit from this new environment? How do you profit from stocks in an environment of slow to no growth, or even of declining growth? There are ways to do it.

Basically, we will need to employ a forecasting model that heavily discounts the prices of all stocks in such an environment. Or, we will have to use a model which basically says you will not pay more than x for stock y, even though x would be an unreasonably low price for stock y, under more normal conditions. Again, investors always send stocks to unreasonably low prices during normal economic downturns, and they will send them lower still once a doomsday or near doomsday scenario begins to look like a real possibility. We will suggest that such a scenario is becoming more credible all the time. In fact, we will suggest that on our current course, and considering the head winds that our economy is now facing, we may be entering a period of dramatically reduced economic activity that will closely resemble another Great Depression. And, we may not have a World War to bring us out of it. That is to say, we can have a chronic recession like environment that lasts for decades. Try to imagine this. Try to imagine a prolonged period of dramatically reduced economic activity. Dramatically higher energy costs combined with an extremely burdensome debt can have this effect, especially when many of the holders of our debt are foreign governments. Such an environment will have a devastating effect on all stock prices. It will even have a devastating effect on the stocks of companies that would have otherwise had reasonably high growth prospects in a different business environment.

So how do we begin to forecast where stock prices should be in such an environment? How do we determine how much we would be willing to pay for carefully selected stocks in such an environment? Price earnings ratios have been the gauge that many investors have traditionally used to determine how much they were willing to pay for a stock. But PE ratios are not a very reliable indicator of how much you should pay for a stock in an environment in which earnings are rapidly declining. Nonetheless, they do give us a reference point.

Based on a study by Jeremy J. Siegal, the conventional wisdom says that, on average, stocks have historically been fairly priced at around 15 times projected earnings, or with a PE ratio of around 15. The lowest average PE ratio has dropped to around 7, and the highest has risen to above 30. Since we are going to be in the business of forecasting worst case or near worst case scenarios, then, obviously, we are going to be much more comfortable buying stocks that have a PE closer to 7 than to 30.

In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will suggest that, in a declining market, or in an environment in which earnings are deteriorating, projected earnings would not seem to be a very good indicator of what a stock's price should be. Having said this, the historical precedents for what constitute high and low PE ratios do give us a better idea of where a stock should be trading in an environment of dramatically reduced economic activity. In an environment of declining economic activity, we certainly don't want to pay more than half of the historical PE that most investors have been willing to pay, and we would be much more comfortable paying less than one third of what they have traditionally been willing to pay for stocks. Or, on average we will not want to pay more than a PE of 7 for most companies that will be featured in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, and we will be much more comfortable paying a PE closer to 5. And as for companies with negative or no earnings that will occasionally be highlighted in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, we will simply discount these stocks as "highly speculative investments," regardless of their prospects for growth in a normal environment. Accordingly, we will expect to either completely loose any money that we put into these risky investments (assuming that we don't use a stop loss), or we will not take less than a 300% return for them, having taken such an extraordinary risk.

In keeping with the central theme of PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, and as part of our overall financial plan, we will presume that there is something new, different and potentially more ominous about this particular economic down turn, and we will position ourselves accordingly. As existing economic paradigms become discredited and fall away, you will need a new way to look at things, to help with your financial planning. You will need a new paradigm to work with in order to make sense of it all. PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS is designed to provide you with this alternative paradigm. Considering the possibility of a worst case or near worst case scenario should be an integral part of all financial planning. Things can go very wrong. And, there are now enough things on the radar screen to suggest that they are going very wrong. The fear hasn't set in yet. Most Americans still have a sense of normalcy in their lives. We believe that this is about to change.

In the environment that we are now entering, we will suggest that a continued high rate of growth, mainly as a function of population growth, is not what you should expect, and is not even what you should hope for. We are facing a situation in which economic growth will place increasing pressure on the very resources that are needed to sustain it, along with our standard of living.

Up to this point in time, the growth model has prevailed as a basis for determining stock prices. The growth model is based upon the presumption that expanding populations lead to expanding markets, and expanding markets lead to ever increasing levels of economic activity. These ever increasing levels of economic activity are a source of both jobs and profits. But the growth model has natural limits, and it has flaws. To begin with, the number of people that an economy can provide jobs for is mainly a function of existing populations, not future populations. And secondly, the natural resources on which the growth model depends are finite.

As people aspire to a higher standard of living around the world, their consumption of the resources that are needed to achieve this standard of living will increase. This new source of consumption, combined with the existing levels of consumption in the developed nations, will put additional pressure on resources, and will trigger a spiraling inflation in the price of all commodities. In turn, this inflation in commodities will tend to put a cap on the level of economic growth over the longer term.

The growth model is based on the idea of constantly expanding populations and markets. Yet, in a world of finite resources, at some point, growth must place extreme pressures on the very resources that are needed to sustain it. We have now reached this point. This has important implications for the models we use to forecast the rate of economic growth, and the prices we would be willing to pay for stocks. In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will consider such factors, as a supplement to our focus on the technicals and fundamentals of individual stocks. Will will also rely on a little used technique for assessing factors that have a bearing on the long term prospects for the macro economic environment, and which are not normally part of economic forecasting models.

Unknown to many scholars themselves, just like the weather can be predicted with some precision, if you factor in enough variables, history can also be read and predicted with a certain degree of accuracy, if you factor in enough variables. The condition of our overall social and normative environment is important for us to consider because it has a direct bearing on the environment in which business has to operate, and in which profits have to be made. Consequently, the condition of this environment should be factored into our analysis. Most money managers and analysts do not consider such factors, either because these factors are outside their areas of expertise, or because they believe that any models which would consider these factors are too complex to have any predictive value. Wrong!!! Steering currents, or the underlying social and normative currents which affect the broader social and economic environment can be assessed, and changes in them can be tracked. Because steering currents have such a direct and important impact on the overall condition of the business environment, they should be an integral part of any macro economic analysis. For obviously, if the macro environment becomes exceedingly bad, all stock prices will fall, and all fundamental and technical analyses will weaken accordingly. In fact, rare conditions can arise in which all asset classes will decline in value, even precious metals. This is not an economic impossibility, and, in light of recent market turmoil, it is no longer even in the range of being improbable. Accordingly, in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will suggest that there is something new and different about this environment that calls for a different way of valuing stocks, and the prices we are willing to pay for them.

People in our culture naturally tend to be optimistic about the future and, historically, their optimism has been justified. Historically, siding with this optimism has proven to be a good bet. However, things are likely to be different now. Still, hope dies hard, and there remains a lot of residual optimism in both our political and financial system which we will want to take advantage of. That is, we will want to use this optimism, which will tend to send stocks to the upper range of our forecasts, as an opportunity to sell. Realistically, there are just too many bills coming due to be very optimistic. But, popular illusions can last for a long time, especially if they have bogus (or highly inaccurate, at the least) numbers from the government to give them some semblance of legitimacy. In the environment in which we are now entering, an optimistic view will most likely prove to be the wrong view. On the other hand, if enough people backed by enough money have an unrealistically optimistic view of things, and if they threaten to send this market higher, we will want  to go along with them, at least part of the way. And then, when they aren't looking, we will want to quietly part company with them near the top.

If you get the price movement of stocks and commodities right, but you get your timing wrong, you will lose money, at least over the shorter term. Timing is critical. Nothing is guaranteed where economic forecasts are concerned, because there are simply so many variables. Some of the most intelligently written and seemingly reasonable economic forecasts put out by leading "authorities" have been dead wrong lately. This suggests that there is something "fundamentally" different about this economic downturn. It suggests that "underlying fundamentals" of companies are no longer a good way to value their stocks. Conversely, many of the forecasts that have been right have only been right "incidentally" in the same way that a broken clock is right at least twice a day.

The models which many analysts and money managers use to forecast the movement of stock prices don't work very well in this kind of environment because they are inherently optimistic. How often do they recommend a downside or shorting? Their persistent optimism is irrational for those situations in which there is a departure from the normal fluctuations of the business cycle, or in environments where the growth model may breakdown and may no longer apply. We will not be so charitable in our expectations about the future. Indeed, in PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS, we will forecast that things are really going to get nasty. Optimism is not always warranted, and it does not always give you the most accurate view of the world. There are rare circumstances when a far more pessimistic outlook is fully justified. In PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS we will suggest that now is just such a time. Again, our entire forecast is based upon a virtual doomsday scenario. It has to be bearish. And considering all the forces that are now conspiring against us, a virtual doomsday scenario is perfectly realistic. This scenario not only forecasts rather extreme economic turbulence, but increasing social and political turbulence to go along with it; all of which will have implications for the behavior of financial markets.

We will encourage our subscribers to keep in mind that doomsday can come in many forms. And, with absolutely no supernatural agencies at work, human beings can, with the best of intentions paint themselves into a corner from which they will not escape without making a big mess. In the United States today, we have been painted into such a corner. We have been painted into this corner by inept politicians on both the Republican and Democratic sides. And, we have been painted into this corner by mistakes made by a majority of the people themselves!!!. After all, they are the ones who elected the Republicans and Democrats who helped to get us into this mess!!!  If the people don't have sense enough to elect representatives who will give them strong medicine, if they don't have sense enough to elect representatives who will speak with one voice, and only that voice that is most consistent with the public interest over the longer term, then the people will have to reap what they sow, namely, years of social, economic and political turmoil.

In order to make the most prudent economic decisions in this new kind of chaotic social, economic and political environment, we must rely on a form of analysis that considers a much wider range of variables than ever before. Simply forecasting profits is no longer going to cut it. Profits are going to be too uncertain in this new environment. And besides, once again, there can be "fundamental disconnects" between profits and stock prices. There are environments in which profits and profit forecasts can remain rosy, but, as the overall environment in which these profits are "supposed" to be made deteriorates, it undermines both earnings and the expectations of earnings. Earnings expectations can be lowered over the longer term by changes in the profit making environment, and this can take virtually all stock prices lower along with them. That is, a broader market decline begins to discount both real profits in the here and now, and the expectation of future profits, no matter how rosy the outlook for a particular company may have been.

This is what doomsday forecasting is all about. It is about the realistic assessment of a bad situation, and of a worse situation still to come. It is based upon historical analysis and on the realistic assessment that, due to a convergence of events, and due to causes that have deep normative and ethical roots, the political form that we have come to know as liberal democracy has seen its better days, and is most probably headed for a collapse of some kind. Exactly what kind of collapse it is likely to experience remains to be seen. However, there is no need for us to despair about this. And even as bad as things are going to get, this will be a time of opportunity!!!

Don't misunderstand me, no one sets out to profit at other's expense. But there are situations in which you are morally obligated to profit, just to be able to bring some semblance of rationality and order into the world. In the current situation, we are morally obligated and compelled to profit as a way of getting into a position that will allow us to bring about meaningful changes to both our economic and political systems. We are morally obligated to gain enough wealth to be able to sweep the slate clean, politically and economically speaking. We are morally obligated to profit from the mess that has been imposed upon us by both inept politicians directly, and indirectly, by a majority of the Americans who were responsible for putting them in office, or who failed to keep them out of office.

The people, or at least a majority of them, are not always right, and they do not always exercise good judgment. A few years ago, I wrote a book entitled The Political Sophistication of the American Electorate. In this book, I reached the somewhat optimistic conclusion that because more Americans seemed to be relying on more abstract determinants (ideologies) to make their political decisions, or because more and more of them had started to define themselves as either liberals or conservatives, rather than as simply Democrats or Republicans, that they were showing some signs of becoming more politically sophisticated. I now believe that this conclusion was wrong. Or, at the very least, it was premature. I now believe that an overwhelming majority of the American people are not currently politically sophisticated enough to elect the kinds of representatives that we need to set this nation on a proper course, and that we need to maximize the public interest over the longer term. In my view, the public has simply failed to reach the correct conclusions, ideologically speaking. The American people remain too susceptible to media influences, and their opinions about important issues remain too much in flux to give our political system any semblance of stability for the foreseeable future. This means that not only will we have to pay for the mistakes of the past, but we will also have to pay for the mistakes that are likely to be made in the future as well. This will put even more pressure on the business and the profit making environment than there is now. Under these circumstances, we are morally obligated to increase our wealth in order to be in a better position to set things straight when the entire edifice comes crashing down on our heads. That is, we are morally obligated to PROFIT FROM DOOM. Politics runs on money. We will need a vast reservoir of wealth, just to be able to to sweep away the old order and establish a new one in its place. Gaining this wealth is the main objective of PROFIT FROM DOOM NEWS.

COPYRIGHT 2008 BY ALEX VAN ALLEN